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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Wednesday Nov 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds to gale-force will persist through this morning from the waters north of the Canary Islands to off Agadir, Morocco, with 12 to 18 ft seas. These gales and rough to very rough seas are ahead of a complex pair of low pressure systems west and northwest of the Canary Islands moving rapidly to the northeast. Winds and seas will start to diminish after 12 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 21W and 42W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Weak low pressure that has formed just offshore Texas is inducing scattered moderate convection offshore the Middle and Upper-Texas coast. Elsewhere, mainly high pressure dominates, with gentle NE winds prevail, along with seas of less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will exit Texas tonight, then sweep across the basin through Thursday night and depart by Fri, leading fresh to locally strong N winds and building seas in its wake. High pressure will build southward into the region this weekend, with increasing easterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Strong E winds are likely across portions of the northern Gulf starting Sun as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a low pressure and attendant cold front that will approach the NW Gulf for the start of next week.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central America and in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW basin due to upper-level divergence.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean into Thursday night, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken starting Friday as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate north winds and slightly building seas are likely behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean this weekend.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please See the Active & Developing Storms section for information on a Gale Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area.

A cold front extends from 29N55W to 27N62W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with a pre-frontal trough N of 29N around 45W, otherwise little sensible weather is associated with this front. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 26W40W. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong SW winds prevail, with rough seas. Very rough seas in NW swell, and fresh winds are N of the boundary. Upper-level divergence is leading to scattered moderate convection N of the Greater Antilles to 22N, between 65W and 75W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the NE waters will exit to the east later today. Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it. These conditions are expected to persist through Saturday night. By Saturday night, the front will stall from near 28N55W to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos.

Forecaster: Stephen Konarik, National Hurricane Center