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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Monday Oct 27 2025

UPDATED TO INCLUDE INFORMATION FROM THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOR MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Hurricane Melissa is centered near 16.5N 78.3W at 27/1800 UTC or 130 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 906 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt. Peak seas near the center of Melissa are near 35 ft. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are ongoing over most of the north-central Caribbean N of 10N between 71W and 81W. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, on Wednesday.

Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding.

A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Waves
Based on visible satellite, precipitable water, and AI Tropical Wave Diagnostics, a tropical wave is added to the surface analysis along 42W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 38W and 43W.

A tropical wave is along 54W from 15N southward, and is nearly stationary. No significant convection is noted at this time. This tropical wave is expected to dissipate tonight or tomorrow.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough terminates in the coastal regions of Guinea- Bissau. The ITCZ extends from 12N16W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 23W and 34W.

Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
1011 mb low pressure is near 30N86W, along a frontal zone that extends across the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf waters. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 83W and 85W. Gentle to moderate N winds, and 3-5 ft seas, prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday and will progress southeastward over the region through late week. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front early Wednesday through Thu. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Winds will likely reach gale force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Wednesday afternoon.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section FOR INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA.

Seas in excess of 8 ft are north of 12N between 72W and 82W, due to MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA. This includes the southern half of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean, satellite scatterometer indicates fresh to strong winds associated with the outer circulation of MELISSA. In the eastern Caribbean, trades are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4-7 ff across the basin, except for as described above.

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 16.9N 78.3W this evening, 17.8N 77.9W Tuesday morning, and 19.1N 76.9W Tuesday evening. Melissa will move N of the Caribbean on Wed, with marine conditions improving through the day.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section FOR INFORMATION ON MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA.

A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong E winds are north of 27N west of 70W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is from 28N38W to 20N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 29N between 35W and 44W. Weak 1019 mb low pressure is near 29N45W. Satellite scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 16.9N 78.3W this evening, 17.8N 77.9W Tuesday morning, 19.1N 76.9W Tuesday evening, 20.8N 75.5W Wednesday morning, 23.0N 73.7W Wednesday evening, and 25.9N 71.2W Thursday morning. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves N of the area to 34.3N 63.0W early Fri. A stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to east-central Florida. Fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail west of 72W through today as a strong pressure gradient prevails between the front, high pressure to the north and Major Hurricane Melissa in the north- central Caribbean. A low pressure system associated with the stationary front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. today, leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of 78W this afternoon through Tue, and fresh to strong N to NW winds behind the system offshore of northern Florida Tuesday through midweek. Rough seas will build over this region by early Tue, with seas expanding farther south and east Tuesday and Wed. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. by late week, supporting increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic.

Forecaster: Aidan Mahoney, National Hurricane Center

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