BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAIAS...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.8N 92.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis
* East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere
around the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for portions of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. Isaias is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued
east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S.
northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning,
with further strengthening expected through Friday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft
Mobile Bay...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
WIND: Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area
late Friday, and tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas by midday Friday.
Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Thursday.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay
of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of
Campeche and western Yucatan.
From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10
inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far
southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible
across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley
and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated
river flooding, will be possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: Tornado potential will increase as rain bands
accompanying Isaias approach the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday
evening and overnight. This potential will spread inland on Saturday
as Isaias continues northward.
SURF: Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward
the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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